Column: A long, slow climb out of the hole

There has been great gnashing of teeth over the last few years about how long the economic swoon we are now in would last.

At first the predictions were dire. It would take two years before things started getting better, they said. Turns out, things didn't turn around that quickly.

Like a weatherman, an economist can only give you his or her best educated guess on when economic conditions might improve. But they stand about as much chance of being wrong as they do of getting right.

And, that uncertainty makes it even more difficult for the business community to figure out how to navigate these new business waters we all find ourselves in.

And, so it was refreshing to hear Dr. Michael Walden, the N.C.State Unversity economist who is widely cited by state officials and oft-quoted in the news media, say Thursday that there are actually signs the economy is starting to improve.

Walden spoke to guests and members of the Clayton morning Rotary Club Thursday and he did a good job of explaining how the housing bubble burst, leaving millions of people upside down in their mortgages. In many cases, changes in their economic situation made it difficult to keep up with payments that rose from unreasonably low levels.

But of greater importance, in my mind, were Walden's comments that there are signs that the economy is actually getting better.

Among the figures he cited were the lower depreciation rates than in past years.

Home values are still depreciating, he said, but at a much slower rate than in past years. So, according to Walden, less bad is good.

Walden also pointed out that job growth is rebounding. More than anything else, people need jobs if they are going to participate in an economy. Whether it's a large purchase like a car or a home, or something simple, like groceries or a movie, people without income do nothing to contribute to the larger economy.

So more people with jobs equals more money moving around in the economy. That starts a circle that ends up benifitting everyone.

In his remarks Thursday, Walden didn't address North Carolina specifically, or even the greater Triangle of which Clayton is a part. But if a rising tide raises all ships, his message was undoubtedly better news than most folks have heard in a good long while.

One note of caution though, from Walden. The nation's last significant recession in 2001, dropped the nation's gross domestic product by one-half of one percent. The Great Recession dropped GDP by 6 percent. Put another way, that's a really steep hole out of which we must climb. Improvement will be slow this year, Walden predicted. But it will improve. And 2013 and 2014 should give us even more reason to be optimistic.